its the Showdown

50/50 over time

Over the last 28 years since Port Power went into the AFL, Showdown contest between the Adelaide Crows and Port Adelaide generally has been 50/50 contests. Whilst teams have had runs of wins, over the time it has evened out. Generally the rule of thumb has been where ever on the table has not mattered, they are 50/50 contests. This is not entirely true but for the sake of the argument between 50/50 contests only over times and Power supporters let’s run with it.

Crows won 4 of last 5

Head to head Adelaide has won 4 of the last 5 contests and the last game was a tight 5 point Adelaide win 89-84. Apart from last meeting 5 point game, margins prior have been average 32 points in a range of 22 to 47 points. Average game scores between the two of recent times are at 165.4 points per game in the mid point range. The range of total scores has been a low 126 to a high of 203 points per game. The last three games has not seen either side kick 100+ points. However the prior two games has been 112 and 117 points per game for Adelaide. This gives the Crows an average of 90.8 points per game and the Power 72.6 points per game of recent times.

Crows goal scoring machines

Adelaide is 4-1 the last 5 weeks in the AFL and Port Adelaide is 2-3. Adelaide has kicked 100+ points in 3 of the last 4 games. Apart from 2 weeks ago versus Bulldogs they have been able to keep opposition to low scores. They have been scoring machines at Adelaide Oval. Port Adelaide has kicked only 100+ points once in the last 5 weeks but also only once 100+ against.

Port to bounce

On our HBM Human Behaviour Modelling, Adelaide is on a 2 game peak run and 3 of the last 4 games have been peaks. Port Adelaide is on a 3 game trough run BUT one is a trough win and the other two are narrow trough losses relative to market expectations. All this, despite recent form, tells us that Port is ready to bounce here and that Adelaide’s winning peak run may be overstretched.
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