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Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival 2016

Congratulations to those of you who took the 40-1 Jameka in the Caulfield Cup when we first put out our Spring Stable Stars mid August. The fact this mare started favorite and won so comfortably makes it even sweeter. A great selection by our man Pete Brinky who followed his eye from her performances last Spring. We update our current Stable Stars below.

It was a tough day last Saturday Caulfield Cup Day with so many of the fancied runners, especially early in the day not delivering.

The highlight of course was our fancied runner in the Caulfield Cup Jameka, winning as a first selection at $4 (up to $4.50 was bet). We were able to get the $16 quinella with our other fancy for the Cup, Scottish. This was a nice result for those that take the quinellas.

Other winners in Melbourne were First Seal at nice odds of $7.70 and the quinella with Tycoon Tara paying $8 and Voodoo Lad winning the last and the quinella with Takedown paying $4.

That’s three quinella results for the day and worth paying attention to over the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival, especially where there is a $10 plus value play in the selections.

With the AAMI Victoria Derby and Crown Oaks not far away for the 3 year olds, several runners for these races ran for the first time over 2000m in preparation for the 2400m classics during the Melbourne Cup Carnival 2016. We had Rocketeer rocketing home and finishing second in the Colts race and Stable Star Sebring Dream ran in the first half dozen.

Of course all eyes turn to the WS Cox Plate meeting this Saturday. There is a super betting battle going on between WInx $2.10 and Hartnell $2.70. We put Winx up and backed it as a Spring Stable Star in mid August when she was $2.70. This was before Hartnell went on his recent winning streak.

We also have Yankee Rose going as a Spring Stable Star at $17 mid August, she got out to $51 before the Spring Champion Stakes win and she is now $17. Outside that, Black Heart Bart is in the market at $17.

So we are alive on WInx at $2.70 and Yankee Rose at $17. At this stage Yankee Rose is the each way value play at the $17, carrying the 47.5kg. If you are not on, then consider this unless you are fixed on Winx or Hartnell.

This Wednesday features the Geelong Cup, which has a number of Emirates Melbourne Cup aspirants running in it and the Geelong Classic for the 3 year olds. Media Puzzle 2002 and Americain 2010 are the form lines through the Geelong Cup but it is really the race where many imports make their Aussie debuts, this year there are four Internationals.

For the Emirates Melbourne Cup 2016 Jameka has been handed a 1.5kg penalty and she will carry 53.5kg in Melbourne Cup. Our view is she got off lightly and could have got up to 4kg and a minimum of 2kg. So she is a mighty chance in the Cup.

The Jameka/Hartnell Melbourne Cup betting dilemma is where will Hartnell go post WS Cox Plate? Whilst he may run in the Emirates Melbourne Cup, there is a whisper he will bypass the Cup to run in the $2 million Emirates Stakes over 2000m on the last day of the Carnival. So we will sit tight until post WS Cox Plate on this view.

Tarzino is a Spring Stable Star and just has not come on from his super 2015 Spring and 2016 Autumn campaigns and is now out from $15 to $101 for the Emirates Melbourne Cup 2016 and must be a doubtful runner.

Our two Internationals we have backed in the Emirates Melbourne Cup 2016 as Spring Stable Stars are Wicklow Brave $17 and Corren Mirotec $19 and both are steady in the market. Both horses are likely not to have lead up runs and make their Australian debuts in the Cup.

AAMI Victoria Derby Day is Saturday 29th October and it looks like our Stable Star Kaching will not run and has gone to the paddock. The Derby looks one of the most open for years so we will turn our eyes to the 2000m LUCRF Super Vase this Saturday on WS Cox Plate Day. This race has proven to be a great pointer to the Derby including Tarzino last year. So we will weigh up the form of the Caulfield Classic, the Geelong Classic and the Super Vase to form our view.

The Crown Oaks we put up Serenely Discreet at $26 as a Spring Stable Star. She is currently $15 and we understand she is now a doubtful runner as she has had a set back. Sebring Dream finished fifth of fourteen on Caulfield Cup Day and came from last over 2000m so she is on track and can be backed at $10. We also didn’t mind the run of Tiamo Grace who was the eye catcher when badly held in the straight before getting out late and running home hard. She is $9 and we will add Tiamo Grace as a Spring Stable Star to back. We will watch the Wakeful Stakes for the fillies over 2000m on AAMI Derby Day with interest.