AFL tips and betting round 14 review
This article we look at the results of Round 14 and discuss the AFL Grand Final sides and Collective Minds as well as looking at our two winners for AFL tips and betting Round 14 which included a 3 unit best bet Carlton +47.5. We missed the Gold Coast bet at +51.5 by two points in a 43-96 loss and the Brisbane +23.5 bet by four points in a 82-109 loss but got Melbourne home on a +11.5 line in a 65-75 loss after leading all night against Port.
Winning bets round 14:
Melbourne 1 unit +11.5
Carlton 3 unit best bet +47.5
Carlton +47.5…a classic Human Behaviour Model play
The Collingwood and Carlton AFL tips and betting round 14 game was a keen play under the human behavior model to verify the Carlton +47.5 best bet. We thought a Carlton win unlikely but not totally out of the question but the $8.50 win worth a small investment. But the +47.5 was definitely worth a play.
Highlights of this AFL Round
1. Carlton off an embarrassing loss against Fremantle surely had bottomed and would bounce
2. Collingwood coming off a big peak performance win and then a bye to sit back and bask in their glory of the Melbourne win
3. Historically the lesser placed team gets “up” for these contests
Now the Collingwood form was vastly superior than Carlton’s so it was not an even money game but at $8.50 basically the bookies were giving Carlton next to no hope. We did not think the circumstances supported that hence the three unit best bet tag the Bluebaggers.
However now they have had a relative “peak performance” takes the Blues off the table for this week.
Melbourne and Port…top 4 aspirants or Top 8 and that’s it?
Melbourne and Port played the Friday night AFL round 14 tips and betting game billed as a blockbuster. We had a close but nice winning result on our +11.5 bet on Melbourne as they led all night until late in the game in a close 65-75 loss to the Power.
Melbourne had 58 inside 50 entries to Port 39 and on that basis should have had about 35 scoring shots and kicked 20 goals. They kicked 9 in a wasteful display of inside 50 entries. Port has now claimed scalps of top 8 sides this season, something they were unable to do in 2017 and this lifts their credentials as a potential top 4 side. They are a stronger contested ball and stoppage side and their defense has improved. Ultimately, we still see Geelong as the stronger fourth placed side ahead of Port and Melbourne and retain a “wait and see” approach to any top four or AFL Grand Final aspirations of these two but certainly from Melbourne’s point of view it was “wasteful ” football and win goes begging.
No Darling, No Kennedy, No West Coast
Normally a fortress at the new Perth stadium for West Coast, we could not believe in the AFL tips and betting Thursday night game last week when we turned on the TV half way through Q2 and saw a score line 50 points to 1…Essendons way! That is a score line that we expected to be the opposite and West Coast in losing two in a row have hit a form slump. Further, their scoring has dried up, average 54 points per game the last two weeks and goes hand in hand with the loss of “twin tower” forwards Darling and Kennedy to injury.
On top of this, lead ruckman “Nic Nat” is accused of being too soft, they lost top spot to slide to third on the AFL tips and betting ladder and this week come up against a under siege Adelaide away to slide further down the table. It is hard to see short term upside in West Coast in their fight to make the AFL Grand Final 2018.
And speaking of Collective Minds in Adelaide Crows
It would be remiss of us not to comment on the Collective Minds drama at the Adelaide Crows. The leadership guru group got their marching orders from West Lakes this week and their has been “chinese whispers” about this relationship ever since the much talked about training camp on the Gold Coast in January this year.
Now if we had a dollar for every AFL or sports club that got “gurus” in to facilitate improved performance be it physical or mental then we would be very wealthy. In engaging Collective Minds Coach Pyke and AFL Head of Football Burton were trying to facilitate improved performance on the back of the shocking AFL Grand Final loss. That is fair enough.
Players being blindfolded on a bus listening to the Richmond theme song, upsetting indigenous players and anything other carrying ons has resulted, along with mass injuries a slide down the table.
Then the ultimate insult of “burying” a Presser away to explain on a Saturday afternoon and in doing so leaving more questions than answers and Burton in particular was most unimpressive. Whoever facilitated that PR strategy needs to go back to a ‘PR master class”!
So Adelaide Crows of course, in moving Collective Minds on would be hoping that the whole episode is done and dusted in its attempts to improve player performance and the questions around the club. There is an argument that with players coming back, quality players, that they may improve performance. But from what we can garner, the trust damage is done and is going to take much, much longer to repair.
AFL Grand Final to missing out on the eight is not a great look and the Crows would not want to be losing Sloane. We hear the wily Hawks, always the great ones for snaring free agents are lurking! Watch this space.
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