AFL 2017 Season Tips

AFL Round 12 tips and betting – The Wash Up

7 consecutive winning weeks for AFL Season 2017

 25-7 line bets last 7 weeks 78% strike rate
7-8 win bets at 47% strike rate at ave win $3.40

35-18 line bets season 66% strike rate
9-13 win bets season at 41% at ave win $3.25

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Two winning line bets out of four for the weekend and a win bet gave us a seventh consecutive winning week at iTipsports AFL. We covered the line in the Sydney -3.5 win over Bulldogs and the Essendon +15.5 smashing of Port Adelaide. Further success was the $2.80 win of Essendon to give us a winning week, seven in a row. Our Friday Late Arvo email is being well received as we can extract some extra value as we did with Essendon who got out to +19.5 (only to be +24.5 pre game and $3.30 win) and our two losing bets lengthened in price Hawthorn -6.5 and Fremantle -18.5 (only to start -13.5).

So another winning weekend and with a no bet game today between Collingwood and Melbourne we can sit back and watch and look forward to next weekend Round 13.

Closest AFL season in living memory –
Two games between 5 and 17 place on the AFL table tells the tale for this season and fits well into our Human Behaviour Model of assessing team performance and the ebbs and flows of same. It is a big part of why our AFL tips and betting is having such great success in 2017. It is quite conceivable that at the half way mark of the season that the team ranked 17 could make the finals. There is also every chance the team ranked 5 could miss out. This is almost unheard of and plays right into our hands for AFL tips and betting for the rest of the season in the lead up to the AFL finals and AFL Grand Final 2017.

Round 12 AFL winners
Sydney, Essendon, Gold Coast and Brisbane were the big winners of Round 12. Sydney made the Bulldogs look second rate on the Thursday night. Its hard to believe Sydney are equal No 1 performed side in the last five weeks at 4-1 win ratio but sit rank 14 on the AFL ladder. Eight of eleven wins probably get Sydney into the AFL top 8 and on talent they can do some damage but there is high pressure on them and the jury is still out.

Essendon obliterated Port Adelaide and it looked a 100 pt win at various stages but ended up being a lazy 60 pts. It was a nice win for us and we talked about Essendons up tempo corridor handball game, we call it “rip, shit or bust” and they delivered this in perfect style. Kamikaze football would be another way to put it.

The Queenslanders had a rarity in that both sides won on the same weekend and it doesn’t happen very often. Gold Coast were very good against Hawthorn and the Suns, with speed and talent in hand, seem to be getting it together. Brisbane had a win and were quite good against a deplorable Fremantle and the Lions win will give them some respite and deserved relief from the hurly burly of AFL.

But, Carlton’s win was the win of the Round. Top plays seventeenth on the table and the No 17 ranked team wins, buy a point if you don’t mind. Carlton is a smokey, an A grade ranked midfield, young emerging talent and a Coach who seems to know what he is doing. Watch them as the season unfolds.

And the Losers…
Well where do you start? In order we will go Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Bulldogs then GWS.

Port Adelaide’s top four credentials are a myth to us. People seem to get off on them with their ability to smash teams below them and talk them up and then it comes smashing down on them. They are not a top four side based on assessment of teams above them and in this instance it was a team below them that beat them. Port are good on their day, especially at home but are mid table ranked at best.

Fremantle were woeful away to bottom side Brisbane and look quite dispirited. The jungle drums will be beating in the West for Ross Lyon!

Hawthorn is done and it will be a long road back for Clarko and Co! Don’t be fooled by the late comeback as they were well and truly cooked and it was a bad loss. Injuries now kicking in and a low first round draft pick will be on the table for the Hawks.

The Western Bulldogs just do not look anything like the side of 2016. If Bontempelli is their benchmark, then they are struggling as he was ordinary and his kicking atrocious. All year we have been on about the Dogs lacking the bite of 2016 and it was on show Thursday night. Clokes recruitment has not worked and they just do not have a tall target inside 50 that can take a mark.

The GWS loss was another wake up call for the young Giants and shows that the top placed team on the ladder is as susceptible as anyone. The bye comes at the right time for the Giants and we are looking for momentum from them in the back half.

And the others…
The other two games had Adelaide regain top spot on the table in smashing St Kilda in Adelaide in a typical home game exhibition by the Crows. The Saints have lost their last three and look under real pressure. Melbourne and Collingwood played a high pressure, if not high quality game at the MCG with a tight single digit win with both teams well in the running for a top 8 spot.

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