AFL Round 16 Tips

AFL Round 16 Tips

Break even weekend for iTipsports AFL tips and betting after our 10 week winning run. Melbourne just scraped in our -7.5 line bet and Port had a strong win over West Coast in our +7.5 line bet. We missed GWS in a – 13.5 bet after they led by 13 points with five minutes to go and failed to ice the game in its draw with the Hawks and Richmond were smashed by the Saints. Big wake up call for the Tigers.

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2-2 win line bets Round 16 at 50%

38-13 line bets last 11 weeks at 77%
10-11 win bets last 11 weeks at 48% and ave win price $6.73

48-24 line bets season to date at 68%
12-16 win bets season to date at 43% and ave win $6.71

The AFL season gets even more interesting!

The closeness in AFL tips and betting just continues in this AFL 2017 season as the closest season in VFL/AFL history. The race to the AFL Finals 2017 continues and looking to who may be the eventual AFL Premier 2017 is a difficult task.

This is the position at the end of Round 16:
2 games between 1st and 7th
2 games between 4th and 12th
2 games difference between 8th and 14th

The teams who cannot make the finals are Brisbane, North, Carlton, Collingwood and Gold Coast very unlikely. Hawthorn can but the draw hurts them. That leaves Fremantle, Essendon, West Coast and Bulldogs sitting outside the AFL top 8 and in our view unlikely to participate in the AFL Finals 2017. That would mean the top eight is settled with teams currently in it which is a big call given the season we are having. However we are struggling to see who can drop out so on that basis it stays as is however the race to top two and top four is wide open. We will cover this later in the week with AFL tips and betting futures markets.

The AFL winners Round 16

In no order Sydney, Hawthorn, Port, Melbourne, St Kilda and Fremantle were the big winners for Round 16 in the context of how the finals shape.

Sydney and Hawthorn are the two very interesting plays in the run up to the finals, especially Sydney. Both teams, perennial finalists for over the last decade, had terrible starts to the season and it is almost unthinkable that they could make the finals, let alone influence them. It is quite a remarkable turnaround and they are both watch this space as if they did make it they can do some damage, especially Sydney. Anyone who took the 36-1 the flag six weeks ago as we suggested is a nice bet. Hawthorns draw is all the more meritorious given they looked shot at 13 points down with five mins to go.

Port had a strong win over West Coast in Perth and bounced nicely as we anticipated with our +7.5 bet from last weeks home loss to Richmond. Dixon and Ryder continue to be the emerging stars and having two big men in form is a massive plus for Port. However the ongoing caveat is the inability to beat sides above them and West Coast were not, so another win against a finals contender but not a top four contender.

Melbourne’s win was very good against a much improved Carlton, in particular given the injuries that they have. It keeps them in touch for a possible top four spot and they can challenge when at full strength. St Kilda had a massive win over Richmond and makes their finals proposition quite strong and they continue a very strong multi game line cover.

Fremantle had a nice but close away win against lowly North, Adelaide smashed the Bulldogs and Geelong smashed Brisbane.

AFL losers Round 16

In no order we have Collingwood, Bulldogs GWS, Richmond and West Coast.

Collingwood is a big story, not just the Buckley one but the context of the last five years since getting rid of Malthouse. It has been a debacle and it cannot just be Nathan that wears it. There must be changes top down. How you can put a succession plan in place with a senior Coach who doesn’t want it is just laughable really in concept and reality. Whilst Mick is prickly and difficult he was a three time premiership Coach with a demonstrative history of success. Bucks was an untried senior assistant Coach with the other challenge of being a club legend. He should have been advised to go elsewhere then come “home” as the saviour when Mick blew up which was always going to happen. It had doom and gloom written all over it and that’s how it played out. So Buckley will move on sometime in the next few weeks and if Collingwood have any brains in their head, they will go to Paul Roos to either Coach or through some arrangement to orchestrate the appointment of a new Coach in some type of consultancy role. The total football department at Collingwood needs overhaul and he is the most experienced guy to do it.

The Bulldogs story is a sad one from premiership heroes to chumps in just a year, as it was for Leicester City in the English Premier League. They look flat and lack energy and we have been on about this all year. Q1 was promising enough last week v Crows but that was about it. Last roll of the dice this week for the Dogs.

Richmond was an abomination…maybe a little strong but at 10-80 down late in the second quarter it just looked ugly. Coach Hardwick’s response to Kane Cornes comments makes even more food for thought in defending an event that cannot be defended. That is Richmond got ahead of itself. Our view is everyone is entitled to a bad day and that is what happened, a bad day. We think Richmond can bounce of this and have a successful end of season although history would say otherwise.

GWS had a draw for the second week in a row, an event that has not happened since the 1920’s. As much as we keep talking them up, they do not perform like a premiership side. We say that in the context of the massive injury list they have. This weeks clash re Sydney may tell us a lot.

West Coast had a poor loss at home to Port and given recent indifferent home performances we really cannot see a finals appearance for the Eagles. Hurry back Nic Nat Naitanui.

Other losers for the Round were Carlton in an honourable loss v Melbourne, North who lost another close game under a goal and Brisbane who were smashed by Geelong, a comment result between these two.

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