AFL Round 13 tips and betting The Wash Up
8 consecutive winning weeks AFL tips and betting another winning weekend at iTipsports AFL tips and betting as we go 8 winning weeks in a row. We had line bet wins with West Coast +3.5, Sydney in a thriller -4.5 and the big winner Carlton at +18.5 and $3.45
The Key Numbers –
3-1 win line bets Round 13 at 75%
1-0 win bets Round 13 at 100%
28-8 line bets last 8 weeks at 78%
8-8 win bets last 8 weeks at 50% and ave win price $3.42
38-19 line bets season to date at 67%
10-13 win bets season to date at 41% and ave win 3.25
Our results are very strong and the HBM Human Behaviour Model working remarkably well in this up and down season and makes predicting AFL finals and who will play in the AFL Grand Final 2017 especially challenging.
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AFL Ladder 2017 continues as a rollercoaster
The rollercoaster year that is AFL ladder 2017 continues to work in our favour, as our Human Behaviour model benefits form the pressures that are playing out week after week. Teams are feeling the pressure of performance and this leads to strained AFL Human Behaviour and peaks and troughs in performance. Simplistically, a win results in a lessening of pressure and a loss a heightening of pressure. This can work both ways, for and against and this is what we are seeing. Teams generally responding to this and lacking consistency. We match this with teams relative performances against bookmakers line and win odds and we then look at our internal data and provide bets accordingly.
At this moment, only one side, Brisbane, cannot make the top eight. This is remarkable at the half way mark of the season. To give context this is the scenario we currently have:
2 game difference between 1 and 7 ranked sides
1 game difference between 4 and 11 ranked sides
2 game difference between 4 and 15 ranked sides
2 game difference between 8 and 17 ranked sides
So you can see a real bottleneck emerging, so sides will handle this pressure and many will not.
AFL 2017 Tips & Updates – The winners Round 13
Melbourne were the big winners for AFL Round 13 as they make their way up the ladder. They sit 7-5 in equal fourth spot and are a comer. A young talented side well groomed by Paul Roos and now Simon Goodwin comes in and puts his stamp on them. With key players Gawn and Hogan to come back and they look to be top four bound, if not certainly top eight.
Sydney had a big result with a come from behind win over Richmond and a iTipsports winner at -4.5. Sydney were 36 points down in the Q2 and it was a significant win. At 5-7, they now sit one game out of the top eight to challenge.
West Coast got back in the winners books after a poor three game run and had a typical strong home win over Geelong and a iTipsports line win at +3.5. West Coast now sit equal fourth at 7-5.
Port Adelaide had a 40 point win over Brisbane. On face value you take the 40 pt result any day of the week. The announcement of the loss of Sports Science guru Darren Burgess to Port as he heads to Arsenal in the EPL in a few weeks time may be significant to Port. After the coach, the Sports Science Fitness Coach is the most important player in AFL. He is the conjoint between Coach and Players, critical to confidence and self belief of the playing group. This exposes Port at a critical time of 7-5 win/loss and a very healthy percentage. This week’s game against Collingwood will tell a lot.
St Kilda got back in the winning list with an average win, but win all the same, over North to sit equal eighth at 6-6 and Carlton, despite sitting 15 on the table at 5-7 are much improved and could well do damage, including making the eight in the back half of the season. It was a nice $3.45 win and +18.5 line bet win for subscribers of iTipsports
The losers Round 13…in order Bulldogs, Richmond, Geelong
There is no doubt the Western Bulldogs were the big losers for Round 13. They look dispirited and lost and Beveridge can say all he wants but this is a team in AFL premiership 2016 hangover and does not now how to get out of it. They are at serious risk of missing on the AFL finals 2017 and we be the first premier to do so for nearly 20 years.
Richmond has now lost four games this year, where they have led comfortably only to lose by less than 10 points. Had have they won them all they sit comfortably on top of the AFL ladder 2017. Had they have won half these close games they sit 9-3 and equal top. They have lost them all. So sit equal fourth on 7-5. We think they will make the eight, they are greatly improved year on year but any many close losses could damage positive psyche. They need to win these close games, especially against teams close to them on the table.
Geelong suffered a predictable loss after having won three big home games over top eight sides so in that context it levels them out and we expect Geelong to now march forward to a top four spot.
Gold Coast lost, costing them a three game win streak and really any talk of finals is folly and North will just roll the season out and finish bottom four.
So that’s our synopsis of Round 13. We now go to full round games after the three week split rounds and after 8 winning weeks of AFL tips and betting, we are looking forward to Round 14 and the back half of the season.